Jobs, Growth and the AI Shift: What Leaders Need to Know

What does the rise of artificial intelligence mean when viewed through the lens of the broader economy? That was the focus of keynote speaker Robert Spendlove of Zions Bank at the Boise Metro Chamber’s 2026 Regional Leadership Conference.
 
Rather than isolating AI as a standalone topic, Spendlove placed it inside a more complex and uncertain economic moment. Inflation pressures, shifting labor dynamics, global instability, and changing consumer behavior are all unfolding at the same time. AI is not happening in a vacuum. It is accelerating and interacting with everything else.
 
AI Is Likely Bigger Than the Dot Com Era
Spendlove framed the current moment with a comparison. The question is not whether AI will have an impact, but what kind of transformation it represents.
 
Is this a repeat of the dot com boom, or something closer to the industrial revolution?
 
His view leaned toward the latter. The industrial revolution took decades to fully play out. AI may follow a similar path, but compressed into a much shorter timeframe. The result is a level of change that is difficult to fully understand in real time.
 
The honest answer, he noted, is that no one fully understands where this is going yet.
 
An Economy Defined by Uncertainty
Spendlove stepped back to outline the broader economic picture.
 
Inflation remains a central concern. While underlying inflation has stabilized somewhat, recent increases in energy prices have pushed headline inflation higher. Global disruptions, particularly in energy markets, are creating ripple effects that impact everything from transportation to consumer goods.
 
At the same time, interest rate expectations are shifting. Markets that once anticipated declining rates are now adjusting to the possibility that rates may stay elevated or even increase.
 
The result is an environment where businesses and policymakers are making decisions without clear signals.
 
The Labor Market Is Sending Mixed Messages
One of the most striking themes of the keynote was the disconnect within the labor market.
 
On the surface, unemployment remains low. By historical standards, the labor market appears strong.
 
But beneath that, the data tells a more complicated story.
 
Hiring rates have slowed to levels not seen in more than a decade. Job openings have declined. Workers are less likely to quit, and employers are more cautious about hiring. At the same time, layoffs have not spiked in a meaningful way.
 
Spendlove described this as a low hire, low fire environment. Employers are holding steady. Workers are staying put. Everyone is waiting for more clarity.
 
That hesitation reflects a broader uncertainty about what comes next.
 
Where AI Is Showing Up in the Data
While AI is still early in its economic impact, there are early signals.
 
In highly exposed sectors such as technology and customer service, there are signs that entry level roles are being affected. Younger workers, particularly those without developed professional skills, are more vulnerable to displacement.
 
More experienced workers, especially those with strong communication and leadership abilities, are often seeing the opposite effect. AI is increasing their productivity and value.
 
This creates a shift in how organizations think about talent. Technical skills matter, but so do the durable human skills that AI cannot replicate.
 
The implication is clear. Workforce development is not just about technical training. It is about helping people build the skills that allow them to adapt.
 
Consumers Are Uneasy but Still Spending
Another tension highlighted in the keynote is the gap between how consumers feel and how they behave.
 
Consumer sentiment is low. In fact, it recently reached one of the lowest levels on record. People are concerned about inflation, job stability, and the broader economy.
 
At the same time, spending remains strong. Retail sales continue to grow, even in the face of rising costs.
 
Spendlove described this as a K shaped dynamic. Higher income households continue to spend at strong levels, while lower income households are feeling more strain.
 
That divide is becoming more visible in everything from retail trends to travel and dining behavior.
 
A Strong Position with Real Risks
Despite the uncertainty, Spendlove emphasized that Idaho remains in a strong position.
 
Population growth is well above the national average. Job growth continues to outpace the country. Unemployment remains low. Business formation is strong.
 
These fundamentals matter. They provide resilience even as broader economic conditions shift.
 
At the same time, the state is not insulated from national and global pressures. Slowing growth, policy changes, and external shocks will continue to shape the outlook.
 
The Importance of Leadership in an AI Economy
The keynote closed on a practical note.
 
AI is not a distant issue for leaders to monitor. It is already shaping productivity, hiring, and competitive advantage.
 
The risk is not simply losing jobs to AI. It is losing ground to people and organizations that understand how to use it effectively.
 
For leaders, that means engaging now. Learning how AI applies to their work. Investing in people. Building teams that combine technical capability with human judgment.
 
The shift is already underway. The only real choice is how prepared organizations will be to navigate it.
 
Robert Spendlove delivered these remarks at the Boise Metro Chamber’s 2026 Regional Leadership Conference on April 21, 2026. This blog post was prepared from a transcript using the help of AI.

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