From Megawatts to Models: How Energy and AI Are Reshaping Each Other

From the race to go nuclear by the Fourth of July to a natural gas pipeline that is completely out of capacity, Idaho's energy landscape is changing faster than at any point in the last three decades. That was the clear message from the Megawatts to Models panel at this year's Regional Leadership Conference, where four of the state's top energy minds gathered to make sense of what artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and a national push for energy dominance mean for Idaho businesses.

Moderated by Adam Richins, executive vice president and chief operating officer of Idaho Power, the panel featured Hart Gilchrist, vice president of business development and external affairs for Intermountain Gas Company; Theresa Foxley, chief of staff at RPLUS Energies; and Todd Combs, deputy laboratory director for science and technology and chief research officer at Idaho National Laboratory.

Idaho Power Is Growing at 40 Times the Normal Rate
Richins opened with some numbers that put Idaho's growth in sharp perspective. The typical utility grows at about one percent per year. Idaho Power is currently projected to grow at 8.3 percent annually for each of the next five years. As Richins put it, that is 40 years of growth compressed into five.

Contrary to what many might assume, the dominant driver of that growth is not data centers. It is onshoring and reshoring of manufacturing. Micron, Chobani, Lamb Weston, and Perpetua Resources were among the companies cited as major contributors to Idaho Power's surging demand. Data centers are part of the story, but a smaller part than the headlines suggest.

The good news for Idaho ratepayers: large commercial and industrial customers pay their own way. Richins explained that companies like Micron cover the full cost of the infrastructure required to serve them, including substations that can span sixteen acres. That policy, in place in Idaho for 30 years, is what keeps residential rates from absorbing those costs.

Idaho remains one of the lowest-cost electricity markets in the nation, a point Richins illustrated by comparing regulated markets to deregulated ones. States with competitive energy markets consistently showed the highest rates on the map. Idaho sits in the dark blue.

The Pipeline Is Full and the Grid Is Constrained
Hart Gilchrist of Intermountain Gas brought a candid assessment of where the state's natural gas infrastructure stands today: at capacity. In the past 18 months, Intermountain Gas has fielded roughly 30 inquiries from prospective data center customers, ranging from 20 megawatt boutique facilities to operations as large as 600 megawatts. To put that in context, Gilchrist noted that a 20 megawatt data center would already be larger than Intermountain Gas's biggest industrial customer today. A 600 megawatt operation would be 20 times that.

The challenge is not a shortage of natural gas. There is plenty available across North America. The constraint is getting it to Idaho. The existing pipeline that serves the state is completely full. Idaho Power subscribed the remaining available capacity last February, leaving no room for additional large load customers until new infrastructure is built.

Williams Pipeline is developing a solution called the Rocky Columbia Connector, which would bring additional gas capacity from the Rockies up through Idaho. The target is Q3 of 2030. Until then, Gilchrist was direct: the pipeline is full.

The transmission grid faces a similar reality. Richins walked through what happened during an extreme cold snap on MLK weekend two years ago, when temperatures plummeted in the Pacific Northwest and energy prices spiked to crisis levels. Idaho Power wanted to purchase lower-cost energy from markets to the south but lacked the transmission capacity to move it north. The lesson was clear: infrastructure constraints are not theoretical. They cost real money in real time.

INL Is in Ludicrous Mode
Todd Combs offered what may have been the most headline-grabbing update of the panel. Following a series of executive orders from the Trump administration last May, the Idaho National Laboratory has been operating at what Combs called ludicrous mode for the past year, with a directive to bring three reactors to critical sustained nuclear fission before July 4, 2026.

"Multiple companies now have a realistic path to going critical by the deadline, with a microreactor currently being installed inside INL's historic Experimental Breeder Reactor Two dome," Said Todd Combs.

To put the historical significance in perspective: between 1950 and 1980, INL conducted 52 nuclear reactor tests. There has not been a reactor demonstrated on site since. The lab now has ten on its current timeline, with multiple companies racing to become the 53rd reactor ever tested at INL.

Combs also outlined the distinction between microreactors (up to 20 megawatts), small modular reactors (up to roughly 300 megawatts), and traditional utility-scale nuclear. Microreactors carry the promise of factory manufacturing and assembly-line production, which could dramatically accelerate cost reduction. Small modular reactors are more complex and likely three to seven years from first-of-a-kind to commercial deployment. The United States does not yet have an operating SMR, though TerraPower is expected to bring one online around 2030.

Combs also noted a striking irony: Idaho has been home to the nation's nuclear laboratory for decades, yet uses very little nuclear power itself. His question to the room was pointed. Is Idaho prepared to embrace it?

Solar Is Fast, Cheap, and Part of the Answer
Theresa Foxley made the case for solar not as a replacement for other energy sources, but as an essential piece of a diversified portfolio. RPLUS Energies, an independent power producer, has built 500 megawatts of solar in Idaho and recently completed the Pleasant Valley Solar Project, a 200 megawatt facility developed and brought online in under four years.

"Solar is readily available. We can build these projects very quickly," Foxley said. "It's low cost, rapidly deployable technology, and we firmly believe it needs to be part of the solution."

Richins reinforced that point from the Idaho Power side, noting that solar helps the utility conserve its hydro resources during peak daylight hours, effectively using sunlight to save water for when it is needed most. The two resources work in tandem, and both are part of how Idaho Power plans to meet a demand curve that is expected to roughly double by 2030.

What Idaho Needs to Do Better
​Richins closed the panel by asking each member to identify the single most important thing Idaho needs to improve to compete for AI investment and advanced manufacturing. The answers were consistent in theme if different in framing.

Gilchrist pointed to permitting and regulatory efficiency. Rate cases, interconnection reviews, and infrastructure approvals move far too slowly given the pace of growth. He noted that one transmission project in Idaho has been in the permitting process for 21 years and still has not been built.

Foxley focused on public-private alignment. She cited data showing that over 700 hyperscale data center projects want to come online in the United States before 2030. Last year alone, 18 were canceled due to permitting issues and 17 more were delayed. Idaho can capture its share of that opportunity, she argued, but only if communities, regulators, and utilities are aligned before companies commit capital.

Combs raised a broader question: does Idaho actually want to embrace AI and the infrastructure that comes with it? He noted that states willing to lean in will benefit, and those that hesitate risk being leapfrogged by others that do. His challenge to the room was to match the state's nuclear heritage with a forward-looking willingness to host the next generation of energy technology.

Richins summed it up by returning to a theme he had woven throughout the discussion, borrowing from the story of Kobe Bryant's relentless focus on the fundamentals. For Idaho Power, and for Idaho broadly, that means affordability, reliability, and clear communication. The growth is real, the constraints are real, and the opportunity is real. The question is whether Idaho can execute on the basics while navigating an entirely new level of complexity.

Adam Richins, Hart Gilchrist, Theresa Foxley, and Todd Combs delivered these remarks at the Boise Metro Chamber's 2026 Regional Leadership Conference on April 20, 2026. This blog post was prepared from a transcript using the help of AI.

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